Last night I attended my third European Referendum debate and this one was a refreshing change – an opportunity to hear from an MP who is not using the referendum to jockey for position, but one who genuinely seems content with his new, reduced in Governmental terms, role – former Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg MP.
The pantomime of the referendum has been rather depressing – instead of a mature debate, the campaign seems to have degenerated to headline grabbing, jockeying and self-promotion. At times it is hard to work out if we are voting on our ongoing membership of the world’s largest trading bloc or watching a Tory Party leadership battle thinly masquerading itself within a referendum debate. Nick’s perspective is interesting as he has worked with and knows the personalities involved – he is an “inny” – but had little reason to be positive about those leading the Bremain Campaign. Last night was not so much about the facts, these are hard to disentangle from the spin, last night was more about understanding the uncertainty. Regardless of whether you are an “inny” or an “outy”, a key factor is whether you can weather the storm that will follow, be that a storm of normalising in a new Europe or flying solo.
So rather than looking in detail at the facts, we need to consider how quickly we can get things back on track post vote. There is, regardless of how well it is presented, considerable uncertainty in lieu of any real and tangible economic plan by either side.
If we withdraw, the legalities are mind blowing and it will create a hiatus of work for the civil service and Government in the short to medium term. The intricacies and negotiations will be unprecedented. We also need to factor in that the Government will likely turn in on itself. There will almost certainly be a leadership election in the wake, and for a time at least, running the Country will be a distraction from the far more important process of forging careers. The other uncertainty derives from what happens to the United Kingdom, are we likely to see another Referendum in Scotland, could Wales be next?
Certainty is not assured if we remain – we still face a degree of political uncertainty as David Cameron has already announced he will not serve for a third term as PM. With public perception as it is, who will be our next PM? I rather suspect that it is not be someone right at the forefront of the referendum debate. Nick Clegg made a very strong point that, whilst people are passionate about elements of the subject, few people are passionate about the vote itself and many believe it is more about the Tory Party than the Country and hence the cream of the referendum debate crop are not finding a warm place in the heart of the people.
Critically, if we do remain, we do not want to stumble along as we have in Europe. We need to implement changes and play our role better (now with a weakened Exit Trump Card). I challenge any of you without the aid of Google to tell me who the Minister for Europe is, let alone what he does. A vote to stay must be a vote to engage more effectively in Europe.
As BWF we will not lead you one way or the other, it is a personal choice – you need to think about the impacts on your business, your family and ultimately how strongly you feel about the sovereignty issues and whether you feel growth though collaborative working will be more effective than paddling our own canoe.
Whenever I find myself without a clear answer it is time to revert back to first principles and look at adopting a risk based approach (see BWF Members Day 2016, 7th July, near Milton Keynes, free to attend for members and places still available – for the record I am not above using Brexit debate to promote BWF activity!)
Creating a simple risk matrix focussed on your business risks will help you better establish the positive and negative impacts of Bremain/Brexit on your business. Look at your exposure to factors such as the currency fluctuation, tariffs and supply resilience on materials, and availability, retention and cost of labour and how this could impact your business. Other factors you could add include Import/export potential, housebuilding levels, energy security, consumer confidence and the risk of recession – hopefully the matrix will help you in make up your mind as well as help you prepare for the business risks that you may face. You can download a copy of our matrix by clicking through on the image below (note the image cuts off some of the fields):
Clearly this list of factors is not exhaustive, but ultimately you need to thing beyond the emotion and the “so-called facts” and decide. Further questions to consider include, is European Regulation on balance a good thing or a bad thing (recent examples are the Construction Products Regulation (CPR) that drives CE Marking and the EU Timber Regulation)? If currency weakens, will that help fuel the rise of the maker or will the impact of import prices rises unsettle? Can we ride any period of uncertainty and emerge unscathed and stronger? How will we interact and trade with the new Europe?
So to conclude, this is without doubt a big issue for all of us and BWF will be here to help in any period of uncertainty, but ultimately don’t let others decide for you, weight up the risks and vote…
Iain McIlwee, BWF CEO
